CanadaNews’ Reporter Notes

New England has long been a strong democratic stronghold.  The region has always had a left of centre attitude.  To be a New Englander, sometimes means to be a true blue-collar worker [or blue-politically].  Surrounded by that sea-of-blue is an island of “independent red,” otherwise known as New Hampshire.  It’s true the state has more registered independent voters, than republicans and democrats.  The ‘Grand Ol’ Party’ in New England’s only “red state” could be going the way of the Old Man of the Mountain (those from New Hampshire or the surrounding area know that Old man of the Mountain is  the craggy icon of independence that crumbled a few years back in a rock slide). Reminder:  In the last election, Democrats took both seats in Congress for the first time in nearly a century.

Democrats also hold both houses of the legislature for the first time since 1874.  Democratic Gov. John Lynch won a second term with a record 74 percent of the vote.  Also, state lawmakers recently authorized same-sex civil unions and a smoking ban in bars and restaurants.

The “Live Free or Die” state is becoming “Blue Hampshire.” The Granite State, said a blog for the conservative National Review, is “trending alarmingly Granola State.”

People are wondering:  “Why is a normally independent-conservative state like New Hampshire looking more blue?”  There has been a large influx of new residents making New Hampshire home.  The significance if this creates a new dynamic into the first-in-the-nation presidential primary taking place up there in The Granite State.  In 2000, some 62 percent of New Hampshire’s independent voters cast a ballot in the GOP race, lifting Sen. John McCain to victory.

This time people are prepared to see the reverse.  The pundits, the talking heads, one of my neighbours, even the owner of the market across the street from my place all say democrats are reshaping the political landscape.  As many as two-thirds of independents that are expected to vote today in support of Democrats.  

Interestingly enough, in a CNN/WMUR poll of New Hampshire voters released Sunday night, Sen. Obama opened up a 10-point lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, in large part because of support from independents.

But mark my words:  Hillary will win the state.  Largely due to the populations.  The numbers of conservative Democrats are in the larger cities, and closer to the Mass. border.  

From 2001 to 2006, New Hampshire received about 145,000 more residents. 

Andrew Smith, a pollster at the university, says, “they’re coming from the mid-Atlantic, and they’re largely highly educated Democrats.”  These voters are making southern New Hampshire their home.  This is also where the majority of the population is located.  And the most interesting thing about it all is:  The two largest cities in New Hampshire are located in the southern region - the same region where conservative traditional-minded Democrats are located.  These democrats like the old ’status quo’ Dems.  Obama is more popular in university cities and places closer to Vermont (basically in the regions where Howard Dean did well in 2004).  Obama will get more liberal Democratic support.  And even support in areas where Democrats normally don’t do as well.

Take Exeter, NH, for example.  Obama was there campaigning hard for votes.  Exeter was once a hugely republican-based city and a birthplace of the Republican Party. (The brick building that hosted the fateful meeting 155 years ago still bears a plaque declaring it the site at which “The Republican Party was first so named,” but the lower floor is now home to an organic tea shop and yoga studio.)  Democrats are trying to move up the mountain.

Many New Hampshire-ites who once voted for conservatives say they have grown tired of “arrogance” of the Bush administration and the GOP. 

Even so, not everyone is singing a requiem for New Hampshire’s GOP. Registered Republicans are now outnumbered by independents, but still hold an edge over Democrats.