CanadaNews’ Reporter Notes

Presidential hopeful republican Mike Huckabee’s stock has risen.  The former Arkansas governor buoyed by strong support from Christian conservatives.  He has surged past three of his better-known presidential rivals and is now challenging former Olympic organiser and Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney for the lead in the Iowa Republican caucuses.  He is  capitalized on his resume as a Southern Baptist minister and staunch conservative to make a big impression on evangelical Christians. Presently, he is suprisingly in second place in polls in Iowa.  Huckabee has spent considerably less that many of his rivals. 

He’s gotten their attention of the media, other candidates, and more conservative voters. Some GOP officials aren’t sure if  he’s on a path to reprise the 1988 performance of televangelist Pat Robertson, who shocked people with his second-place showing here but never got closer to the White House.

Huckabee’s rise from dark horse to contender in Iowa is one more unexpected twist in a race that has remained fluid throughout the year and adds another unpredictable element to the competition for the GOP nomination. His support in Iowa appears stronger and more enthusiastic than that of his rivals.

Romney outperforms Huckabee and other Republicans on key attributes, with two notable exceptions — perceptions of which candidate best understands people’s problems and which candidate is the most honest and trustworthy.  But some people believe differently.  “I honestly feel that he is the one candidate who sincerely believes what he says,” said Teresa Garman, of Ames, a retired state legislator and veteran anti-abortion activist who remains undecided. “There is no finger in the wind there.”

Still, there are other signs in the poll suggesting that Romney remains the candidate to beat in the state and that gains for Huckabee may be harder to achieve in the next 43 days than they were over the past four months.

The poll found that overall, 28 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers support Romney, while 24 percent support Huckabee. Thompson ran third in the poll at 15 percent, with Giuliani at about the same level, with 13 percent. McCain, whose Iowa campaign appeared to derail earlier this year over his stance on immigration, had 6 percent and was tied with Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), who rose from 2 percent in July.

Last summer, Huckabee stunned many with a second-place showing in a big Republican straw poll, and surveys suggest he’s made continuing gains in Iowa where caucuses Jan. 3 will launch the presidential nominating season. A new Washington Post-ABC News survey shows him at 24 percent of Republicans questioned, compared with 28 percent for rival Romney. 

Huckabee’s up from about 8 percent last summer, while Romney has remained virtually flat.

A closer look shows Huckabee being backed by 44 percent of evangelical Protestants, who make up four in 10 Republican caucus goers.  Also,Romney spent millions of dollars in Iowa, while Huckabee spent a little over a few hundred thousand.

“He is articulate and articulates the conservative message very well,” said Steve Scheffler, head of the Iowa Christian Alliance. The former governor has made deep inroads in the evangelical community with an upbeat campaign style and a message and resume tailored for the community,” he said.

“I think Romney and Huckabee will end up in the top two,” said Scheffler. “I don’t know what order they will be in.”

Mike Huckabee is from Bill Clinton’s home town of Hope, Ark. He was elected lieutenant governor of Arkansas, ascended to the governor’s office in 1996 [amid scandal with the state's democratic party], won election on his own in 1998 and was re-elected in 2002. During his tenure he was best known for losing more than 100 pounds and making a healthy lifestyle a key issue.Some conservatives are leery of his views on taxes, pointing to his Arkansas record.

The Club for Growth, which advocates limited government and lower taxes, points out that as governor he increased taxes on sales, gasoline, cigarettes and nursing homes. He says he had little choice because of court-ordered spending increases or rising federal entitlement spending for programs “over which you don’t have executive control.”

Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Ray Hoffmann said Huckabee isn’t well known here but has surprised many with his political skills. Without much in the way of expectations, it’s easy to live up to them, Hoffmann argued.

“People meet Huckabee and he’s a likable kind of a guy,” said Hoffmann. “People are surprised when they meet him about his ability.”

Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford said Huckabee’s surge could reflect weakness in the other candidates and his courting of the evangelical base.

“He’s definitely the most evangelical candidate in the race,” said Goldford. That challenge is bad news for Romney, who has virtually bet the farm on Iowa, spending far more than his rivals, campaigning almost nonstop and flooding the state with field organizers.

Huckabee’s rivals have some hurdles to overcome with evangelicals. Romney is a Mormon, and that troubles some, along with charges that he’s switched his views on issues like abortion.  Rudy Giuliani is favors abortion rights and gay rights, while John McCain has had troubles with evangelicals since he labeled some leaders “agents of intolerance” in his 2000 campaign.

The problem facing Huckabee is how to build on any success in Iowa, with far less money than his rivals and almost no time to raise it after the caucuses. The front-loaded calendar of primaries and caucuses leaves virtually no time for capitalizing on an early success to generate money.

As of Sept. 30, Huckabee had raised $2.3 million, with the July-September period his strongest with $1 million collected. That was a paltry number compared to his better-financed rivals. Doing better now, Huckabee raised $1 million in October and is halfway to his $2.1 million goal for November.

“Is it really possible to run a grass-roots campaign any more?” asked Goldford, warning that Huckabee could be crushed when the candidates are forced to compete in larger states and in multiple contests where television holds the key.

Rivals concede that Huckabee is well suited for Iowa’s opening test.

“The Iowa caucus situation is made for people who can campaign one-on-one and get to know a few folks and get a few people together and they can surprise the world,” said rival Fred Thompson. “Obviously Huckabee is playing into that. I think I can, too.”

For his part, Romney is busily lowering expectations.

“I’ve been saying for some time that it’s going to be a close race, and Governor Huckabee has made it a close race for some time,” said Romney. “It’s going to get interesting in the last six weeks.”